Large protests are ongoing in Iran amid Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric. However, given the military deployment, strategic risks, and international politics, an attack on Iran appears unlikely for the US.
US President Donald Trump is once again taking a tough stance on Iran. Trump’s statements have become more aggressive following the arrest of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Meanwhile, Iran is witnessing its largest wave of anti-government protests to date. In these circumstances, questions are being raised about whether the US can truly launch a military attack on Iran. According to experts, there are several significant obstacles to this.
1. Lack of military deployment in the Middle East
Despite Trump’s strong statements, there appears to be no significant US military activity on the ground. The Pentagon has neither sent an aircraft carrier to the Middle East nor has any war-like preparations been demonstrated. US allies in the Gulf countries are also cautious about using their military bases to attack Iran. This situation does not indicate any immediate attack.
2. The attack could strengthen the Iranian government
Strategic experts believe that a US attack could prove beneficial to the Iranian government. This could allow the Tehran government to attempt to suppress the current protests by portraying them as a foreign conspiracy. History shows that external threats often weaken internal dissent. In such a situation, voices rising against the regime could turn in the government’s favor.
3. The challenge of dwindling US resources and cooperation
According to the British newspaper The Guardian, the US has withdrawn many of its military resources from the Middle East in recent months. The USS Gerald R. Ford has been deployed to the Caribbean and the USS Nimitz to the US West Coast. To attack Iran, the US would need permission from countries like Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, or Saudi Arabia, which is not easy.
4. Limited military options and the risk of heavy losses
One option for the US could be a limited air strike, similar to the one in June 2025, when B-2 bombers targeted Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility. However, many of Iran’s facilities are located in densely populated areas. Any attack would risk civilian casualties, which could damage America’s image internationally.
5. Iran’s counter-capability and strategic risks
Iran has already made clear that it would target US bases and ships in the event of an attack. Reports suggest Iran possesses approximately 2,000 ballistic missiles, and many of the launch sites are located deep within the mountains. A large number of missile launches could severely strain US and Israeli air defense systems.
If the US directly targets Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, it could constitute a serious violation of international law. This would risk triggering a protracted military conflict. Furthermore, there is no guarantee of a transition of power. Khamenei has already arranged for a succession, making the regime’s survival likely.
